Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
321 picks · 660 bans
Void Spirit
307 picks · 377 bans
Mars
259 picks · 451 bans
Earth Spirit
242 picks · 200 bans
Rubick
215 picks · 112 bans
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 625 bans
Death Prophet
205 picks · 307 bans
Keeper of the Light
205 picks · 415 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:18
beastcoast 60%SG e-sports 40%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 30:39.
Game 2prediction missed36:26
beastcoast 60%SG e-sports 40%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:44.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 60%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2