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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Recast Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Recast Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Alexxo · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
TANNER · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Alexxo · 2 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Koma` · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Alexxo · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TANNER · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
5up · 2 games
50%

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SkyLark · 9 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 654 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
306 picks · 376 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 449 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 199 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
215 picks · 110 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 623 bans
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
204 picks · 303 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
202 picks · 414 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Recast Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Recast Gaming 48%Brame 52%
The model gave 52% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKoma`
46% · 16 games57% · 28 games
MorphlingFocus
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTANNER
53% · 16 gameslittle data
TinkerW1sh-
Tinker
Slardar
SlardarLastHero-
49% · 8 games58% · 34 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Mirana
Mirana5up
45% · 24 games46% · 26 games
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAlexxo
44% · 32 games49% · 8 games
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Recast Gaming 47%Brame 53%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKoma`
46% · 52 games52% · 36 games
MorphlingFocus
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerTANNER
43% · 30 games57% · 76 games
Death ProphetSkyLark
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLastHero-
59% · 53 games57% · 52 games
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit5up
43% · 95 games56% · 52 games
PangolierCTOMAHEH1
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAlexxo
37% · 78 games52% · 92 games
Keeper of the LightSsaSpartan
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction missed10:27
Recast Gaming 51%Brame 49%
The model gave 51% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Brame in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierTANNER
49% · 46 games58% · 13 games
AlchemistFocus
Alchemist
Morphling
MorphlingKoma`
48% · 43 games52% · 124 games
Void SpiritW1sh-
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLastHero-
60% · 48 games48% · 23 games
Dark SeerSkyLark
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
Earthshaker5up
55% · 72 games50% · 35 games
EnigmaSsaSpartan
Enigma
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAlexxo
52% · 83 games37% · 97 games
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 54%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3