Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Incubus Clubloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
321 picks · 652 bans
Void Spirit
305 picks · 374 bans
Mars
258 picks · 448 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 198 bans
Rubick
215 picks · 109 bans
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 622 bans
Death Prophet
203 picks · 302 bans
Keeper of the Light
202 picks · 412 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:22
Hokori 49%Incubus Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 46:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 51%
Series resultHokori 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1