Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Hippomaniacs
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
321 picks · 649 bans
Void Spirit
305 picks · 371 bans
Mars
257 picks · 448 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
Rubick
214 picks · 109 bans
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 621 bans
Death Prophet
202 picks · 300 bans
Keeper of the Light
201 picks · 412 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 26%
Hero pool strength55% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
HellRaisers 84%Hippomaniacs 16%
The model gave 84% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 26:27.
Game 2prediction missed41:24
HellRaisers 84%Hippomaniacs 16%
The model gave 84% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 34:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 84%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2