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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 8 games
88%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 649 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
304 picks · 371 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 446 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
214 picks · 108 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
206 picks · 621 bans
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
202 picks · 298 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
201 picks · 235 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
AS Monaco Gambit 38%EXTREMUM 62%
The model gave 62% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 39:58.
Game 2prediction correct14:24
AS Monaco Gambit 38%EXTREMUM 62%
The model gave 62% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 27:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 62%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2