Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Undyingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
316 picks · 642 bans
Void Spirit
297 picks · 366 bans
Mars
255 picks · 438 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 195 bans
Rubick
209 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 620 bans
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 400 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
Quincy Crew 51%Team Undying 49%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team Undying in 40:13.
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Quincy Crew 51%Team Undying 49%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team Undying in 36:25.
Game 3prediction missed38:18
Quincy Crew 51%Team Undying 49%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team Undying in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 51%
Series resultTeam Undying 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3