PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNGNew Growthwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TRTeam rocket xloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
New Growth
Jakirooften banned
Panda · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Dazzle
Panda · 1 game
Disruptor
Panda · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Panda · 1 game
Undying
Panda · 1 game
Team rocket x
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 863 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 375 bans
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 793 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
Mars
341 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% New Growth
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:15
New Growth 73%Team rocket x 27%
The model gave 73% on New Growth — the game was taken by New Growth in 43:00.
Game 2prediction missed32:9
New Growth 73%Team rocket x 27%
The model gave 73% on New Growth — the game was taken by Team rocket x in 28:40.
Game 3prediction correct32:23
New Growth 73%Team rocket x 27%
The model gave 73% on New Growth — the game was taken by New Growth in 41:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteNew Growth · 73%
Series resultNew Growth 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3