Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
0-900loss 0:1series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Incubus Clubwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
0-900
Witch Doctorsignature
Jericho · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Windranger
sl4d1n- · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Earth Spirit
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Grimstroke
Jericho · 2 games
Marsoften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
316 picks · 641 bans
Void Spirit
297 picks · 366 bans
Mars
255 picks · 438 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 194 bans
Rubick
209 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 620 bans
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
0-900 16%Incubus Club 84%
The model gave 84% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 84%
Series resultIncubus Club 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1