Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Kingrd · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
KJ · 3 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 3 games
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 2 games
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
316 picks · 641 bans
Void Spirit
297 picks · 366 bans
Mars
255 picks · 438 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 194 bans
Rubick
209 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 620 bans
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Evil Geniuses 81%5ManMidas 19%
The model gave 81% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses.
Game 2prediction missed48:5
Evil Geniuses 81%5ManMidas 19%
The model gave 81% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 22:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 81%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2