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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yatoro · 4 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 4 games
75%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yatoro · 3 games
67%

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 638 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
292 picks · 365 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 434 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 190 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
206 picks · 107 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 615 bans
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
198 picks · 397 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
197 picks · 233 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
Team Spirit 56%Team Unique 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:11.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Team Spirit 56%Team Unique 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Unique in 27:59.
Game 3prediction correct16:11
Team Spirit 56%Team Unique 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3