FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 2 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
生死 · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Fantasy · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
308 picks · 630 bans
Void Spirit
288 picks · 360 bans
Mars
250 picks · 430 bans
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
200 picks · 608 bans
Keeper of the Light
196 picks · 391 bans
Phoenix
195 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:31
CDEC Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 32:56.
Game 2prediction missed34:33
CDEC Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:38.
Game 3prediction missed23:11
CDEC Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 64%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3