Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial Pro Gaming
Earth Spirit
Muka · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 12 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 9 games
Chensignature
antoha · 8 games
Leshracsignature
Askold · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
SuperNova · 8 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
308 picks · 630 bans
Void Spirit
288 picks · 360 bans
Mars
250 picks · 430 bans
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
200 picks · 608 bans
Keeper of the Light
196 picks · 391 bans
Phoenix
195 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 76%
Hero pool strength59% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:52
Imperial Pro Gaming 27%PuckChamp 73%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 37:20.
Game 2prediction correct11:34
Imperial Pro Gaming 27%PuckChamp 73%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:01.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 73%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2