Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EgoBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 7 games
Grimstroke
Yor · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Dark Willow
Yor · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Pamplona · 3 games
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
305 picks · 629 bans
Void Spirit
288 picks · 358 bans
Mars
247 picks · 429 bans
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
198 picks · 605 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 388 bans
Phoenix
191 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:16
Infamous 43%EgoBoys 57%
The model gave 57% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 40:39.
Game 2prediction correct29:38
Infamous 43%EgoBoys 57%
The model gave 57% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 44:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 57%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2