?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
20%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 4 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Topson · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 3 games
33%

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 4 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
YapzOr · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 3 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
zai · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
305 picks · 627 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
288 picks · 355 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
247 picks · 427 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
234 picks · 187 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
202 picks · 107 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 385 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
195 picks · 605 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
191 picks · 226 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength61% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
OG 36%Team Secret 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
58% · 36 games55% · 7 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Snapfire
SnapfireTopson
little data29% · 3 games
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
Slark
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
57% · 3 games33% · 16 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Lion
LionSaksa
66% · 7 games37% · 13 games
RubickYapzOr
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorn0tail
little data55% · 7 games
TidehunterPuppey
Tidehunter
Game 2prediction missed24:9
OG 33%Team Secret 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMidOne
49% · 8 games75% · 4 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Riki
RikiTopson
40% · 19 games36% · 6 games
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
Slark
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
57% · 3 games55% · 14 games
RubickYapzOr
Rubick
Lion
LionSaksa
68% · 8 games47% · 14 games
Monkey Kingzai
Monkey King
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorn0tail
little datalittle data
WarlockPuppey
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct26:71
OG 36%Team Secret 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMidOne
51% · 8 games45% · 16 games
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawCeb
45% · 26 games49% · 21 game
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Clinkz
ClinkzTopson
little data42% · 12 games
Enigmazai
Enigma
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSaksa
53% · 55 games50% · 32 games
TuskYapzOr
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernn0tail
64% · 6 games55% · 14 games
IoPuppey
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 77%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3