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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 9 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 8 games
88%

Spider Pigzs

Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 14 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 14 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 12 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No!ob · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
304 picks · 625 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
286 picks · 353 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
247 picks · 427 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
233 picks · 186 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
201 picks · 107 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 381 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
194 picks · 605 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
190 picks · 225 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 52%
Hero pool strength64% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:29
Hellbear Smashers 66%Spider Pigzs 34%
The model gave 66% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAce
43% · 56 games45% · 20 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
48% · 14 games45% · 128 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMISERY
61% · 55 games52% · 84 games
Rubickdnz
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
51% · 79 games41% · 18 games
Legion CommanderMitch
Legion Commander
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
57% · 90 games50% · 44 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct26:23
Hellbear Smashers 67%Spider Pigzs 33%
The model gave 67% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAce
49% · 39 games42% · 35 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
63% · 21 game53% · 76 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphettOfu
57% · 44 games48% · 30 games
TidehunterMitch
Tidehunter
Viper
ViperMISERY
52% · 25 games64% · 6 games
Windrangerdnz
Windranger
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGilgir
56% · 61 game32% · 43 games
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 76%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2