Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
Rubick
illusion · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Spider Pigzs
Rubick
dnz · 14 games
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 12 games
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 9 games
Void Spiritsignature
No!ob · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
303 picks · 617 bans
Void Spirit
284 picks · 350 bans
Mars
244 picks · 427 bans
Earth Spirit
232 picks · 184 bans
Rubick
196 picks · 107 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 378 bans
Nyx Assassin
193 picks · 604 bans
Phoenix
189 picks · 222 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
B8 Esports 42%Spider Pigzs 58%
The model gave 58% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingRdO
Troll Warlordlil pleb
Void SpiritDendi
PuckNo!ob
Rubick[T]SA
Legion CommanderMitch
ClockwerkDuster
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
48% · 49 games
Shadow Shamandnz
Game 2prediction correct13:30
B8 Esports 43%Spider Pigzs 57%
The model gave 57% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingRdO
LycanNo!ob
Shadow FiendDendi
Juggernautlil pleb
Lion[T]SA
NecrophosMitch
Crystal MaidenDuster
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
55% · 24 games
Shadow Shamandnz
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 65%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2