FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
303 picks · 614 bans
Void Spirit
282 picks · 350 bans
Mars
243 picks · 426 bans
Earth Spirit
232 picks · 182 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 378 bans
Rubick
195 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
193 picks · 601 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 222 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
iG Vitality 31%CDEC Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 27:34.
Game 2prediction missed35:22
iG Vitality 31%CDEC Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 35:00.
Game 3prediction correct25:39
iG Vitality 31%CDEC Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 38:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 69%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3