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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tequilawin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tequila

No games played over 6 months.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
300 picks · 602 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
273 picks · 346 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
239 picks · 422 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
223 picks · 178 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
192 picks · 366 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 592 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
191 picks · 103 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Tequila
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Tequila
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:20
Tequila 55%Cascade Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Tequila — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 38:01.
Game 2prediction missed21:45
Tequila 55%Cascade Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Tequila — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 36:54.
Game 3prediction missed29:36
Tequila 55%Cascade Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Tequila — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 39:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTequila · 55%
Series resultTequila 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3