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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
60%

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 8 games
88%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
yamich · 5 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dyrachyo · 5 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 598 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
271 picks · 345 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
237 picks · 421 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
221 picks · 177 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
192 picks · 361 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 592 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
191 picks · 103 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
185 picks · 250 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:41
Creepwave 56%Winstrike Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
53% · 32 games70% · 18 games
Queen of Painre1bl
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsATF
45% · 55 games55% · 64 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixMiLAN
50% · 48 games38% · 15 games
Viperchshrct
Viper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
46% · 34 games52% · 26 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Lich
LichFishman
little data47% · 46 games
OraclePanto
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Creepwave 57%Winstrike Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
53% · 29 games55% · 79 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterATF
67% · 33 games55% · 32 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
47% · 93 games39% · 47 games
Bloodseekerchshrct
Bloodseeker
Phoenix
PhoenixMiLAN
50% · 64 games47% · 47 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFishman
48% · 46 games48% · 60 games
OraclePanto
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct34:21
Creepwave 55%Winstrike Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
45% · 35 games48% · 15 games
Templar Assassinre1bl
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
44% · 139 gameslittle data
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
51% · 47 games46% · 118 games
Void Spiritchshrct
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaMiLAN
55% · 53 games55% · 66 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneFishman
57% · 3 games55% · 78 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 61%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3