Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
298 picks · 598 bans
Void Spirit
270 picks · 344 bans
Mars
236 picks · 421 bans
Earth Spirit
221 picks · 177 bans
Keeper of the Light
192 picks · 361 bans
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 590 bans
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
Wraith King
185 picks · 249 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:24
Team MagMa 31%Invictus Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 44:08.
Game 2prediction correct20:39
Team MagMa 31%Invictus Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 31:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 69%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2