Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Monet · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Xxs · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
LaNm · 2 games
LBZS
Earth Spiritsignature
CatYou · 6 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 4 games
Tusk
CatYou · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
295 picks · 597 bans
Void Spirit
269 picks · 343 bans
Mars
234 picks · 420 bans
Earth Spirit
220 picks · 177 bans
Keeper of the Light
191 picks · 360 bans
Nyx Assassin
190 picks · 589 bans
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
Wraith King
184 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 36%
Hero pool strength64% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Team Aster 68%LBZS 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerMonet
UrsaMS
PuckXxs
BeastmasterIrving
Dragon KnightWhite丶Album
Grimstrokexiaofu
EnigmaBoBoKa
EarthshakerCatYou
AbaddonLaNm
Game 2prediction correct33:33
Team Aster 71%LBZS 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenMonet
Wraith KingMS
PuckWhite丶Album
PangolierIrving
MarsXxs
Earth SpiritCatYou
PhoenixBoBoKa
Grimstrokexiaofu
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 81%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2