Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
Rubick
illusion · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
293 picks · 593 bans
Void Spirit
265 picks · 341 bans
Mars
234 picks · 415 bans
Earth Spirit
218 picks · 174 bans
Keeper of the Light
191 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
Nyx Assassin
188 picks · 585 bans
Wraith King
184 picks · 247 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
PuckChamp 87%B8 Esports 13%
The model gave 87% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:16.
Game 2prediction missed13:42
PuckChamp 87%B8 Esports 13%
The model gave 87% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 28:08.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 87%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2