Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Meta4Proloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
Marssignature
ATF · 14 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
293 picks · 593 bans
Void Spirit
265 picks · 341 bans
Mars
234 picks · 415 bans
Earth Spirit
218 picks · 174 bans
Keeper of the Light
191 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
Nyx Assassin
188 picks · 585 bans
Wraith King
184 picks · 247 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 74%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Meta4Pro 16%Creepwave 84%
The model gave 84% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 84%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1