Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
bumble bEE's
Monkey Kingoften banned
dnm · 3 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Fear · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Lion
Sneyking · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 2 games
Ogre Magi
ppd · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 584 bans
Void Spirit
261 picks · 330 bans
Mars
231 picks · 409 bans
Earth Spirit
217 picks · 171 bans
Keeper of the Light
188 picks · 348 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 577 bans
Wraith King
182 picks · 242 bans
Rubick
180 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
Quincy Crew 76%bumble bEE's 24%
The model gave 76% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 36:00.
Game 2prediction missed45:17
Quincy Crew 76%bumble bEE's 24%
The model gave 76% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 37:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 76%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2