Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 4 games
Disruptor
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
GeneRaL · 4 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 3 games
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yatoro · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 3 games
Rubick
Mira · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 582 bans
Void Spirit
259 picks · 329 bans
Mars
231 picks · 406 bans
Earth Spirit
216 picks · 171 bans
Keeper of the Light
188 picks · 345 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 577 bans
Wraith King
182 picks · 240 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 44%
Hero pool strength62% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:25
Natus Vincere 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanIceberg
Anti-MageYatoro
MorphlingV-Tune
Death ProphetTORONTOTOKYO
EnigmaGeneRaL
Sand KingCollapse
Crystal MaidenALWAYSWANNAFLY
RubickMira
Earth SpiritRodjER
OracleMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct43:38
Natus Vincere 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:04:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Monkey KingYatoro
Queen of PainIceberg
Death ProphetTORONTOTOKYO
EnigmaGeneRaL
Void SpiritCollapse
EarthshakerRodjER
Dark WillowMira
Crystal MaidenALWAYSWANNAFLY
OracleMiposhka
Game 3prediction missed11:30
Natus Vincere 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerV-Tune
Phantom AssassinYatoro
KunkkaIceberg
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Void SpiritGeneRaL
TidehunterCollapse
ChenRodjER
Dark WillowMira
Crystal MaidenALWAYSWANNAFLY
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3