Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoTechiesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 6 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
NoTechies
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 5 games
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 580 bans
Void Spirit
259 picks · 327 bans
Mars
230 picks · 406 bans
Earth Spirit
216 picks · 171 bans
Keeper of the Light
188 picks · 343 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 577 bans
Wraith King
181 picks · 240 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NoTechies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:18
Team Empire 50%NoTechies 50%
The model gave 50% on NoTechies — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
UrsaCrystallize
TimbersawPetushara
InvokerErgon
Shadow Shamansayuw
MarsMalik
Crystal MaidenEcNart
RubickZayac
54% · 27 games
EnchantressSolo
Game 2prediction missed22:9
Team Empire 49%NoTechies 51%
The model gave 51% on NoTechies — the game was taken by Team Empire in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
Templar AssassinErgon
LycanPetushara
PangolierMalik
Rubicksayuw
BloodseekerCrystallize
Death ProphetEcNart
ViperSolo
46% · 41 game
Shadow ShamanZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTechies · 52%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2