Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XXactJlepbIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
XactJlepbI
Miranasignature
KingR · 10 games
Rubick
KingR · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
KingR · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Funn1k · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
lightless · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 579 bans
Void Spirit
258 picks · 327 bans
Mars
230 picks · 406 bans
Earth Spirit
214 picks · 171 bans
Keeper of the Light
187 picks · 343 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 575 bans
Wraith King
181 picks · 239 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
HellRaisers 53%XactJlepbI 47%
The model gave 53% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 29:27.
Game 2prediction missed38:27
HellRaisers 53%XactJlepbI 47%
The model gave 53% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 37:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 53%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2