Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SG e-sportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 4 games
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
Enchantress
Yadomi · 3 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Berna · 3 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 3 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 575 bans
Void Spirit
258 picks · 325 bans
Mars
228 picks · 405 bans
Earth Spirit
214 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
187 picks · 343 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 575 bans
Wraith King
181 picks · 235 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Team Unknown 55%SG e-sports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 38:39.
Game 2prediction missed10:24
Team Unknown 55%SG e-sports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 29:06.
Game 3prediction missed16:36
Team Unknown 55%SG e-sports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 37:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 55%
Series resultSG e-sports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3