Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 3 games
Rubick
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
OG
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 3 games
Rikioften banned
MidOne · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
285 picks · 571 bans
Void Spirit
254 picks · 323 bans
Mars
226 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
186 picks · 336 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 569 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 209 bans
Wraith King
179 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:41
Team Liquid 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidqojqva
Monkey KingMidOne
PuckmiCKe
Earth SpiritTopson
Nature's ProphetiNSaNiA
AlchemistCeb
Sand KingBoxi
Abaddonn0tail
Dark WillowTaiga
RubickSaksa
Game 2prediction missed25:4
Team Liquid 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 13:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritmiCKe
Arc WardenTopson
Razorqojqva
Dragon KnightMidOne
TimbersawBoxi
AlchemistCeb
EnigmaTaiga
RubickSaksa
PuckiNSaNiA
Death Prophetn0tail
Game 3prediction missed51:24
Team Liquid 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekermiCKe
Wraith KingMidOne
Lycanqojqva
Chaos KnightCeb
Outworld DestroyerBoxi
Void SpiritTopson
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
RubickSaksa
Earth SpiritTaiga
Keeper of the Lightn0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3