Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bburjuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Atoufix · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
KiLLoManceR · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
285 picks · 569 bans
Void Spirit
253 picks · 323 bans
Mars
226 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
185 picks · 335 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 569 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 209 bans
Wraith King
179 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 22%
Hero pool strength64% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Hippomaniacs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hippomaniacs 55%burjui 45%
The model gave 55% on Hippomaniacs — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs.
Model check result
Model favoriteHippomaniacs · 55%
Series resultHippomaniacs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1