Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vice Esportsloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vice Esports
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Brewmaster
Enryu · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyde · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Hyde · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
284 picks · 567 bans
Void Spirit
253 picks · 321 bans
Mars
224 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
185 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 569 bans
Phoenix
178 picks · 207 bans
Wraith King
178 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
Vice Esports 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPalos
Phantom Lancer23savage
Ember SpiritBob
BatriderMikoto
BeastmasterEnryu
MarsFbz
35% · 24 games
RubickHyde
little data
Bounty HunterKhezcute
Game 2prediction correct13:64
Vice Esports 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenPalos
Slark23savage
BatriderBob
WindrangerMikoto
Monkey KingEnryu
MarsFbz
47% · 36 games
PhoenixHyde
58% · 13 games
AbaddonKhezcute
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 63%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2