Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 6 games
Brewmaster
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Red · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Red · 2 games
TNC Predator
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
Mirana
Tims · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 3 games
Disruptor
Febby · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
Tusk
Febby · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Armel · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
284 picks · 565 bans
Void Spirit
253 picks · 321 bans
Mars
222 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 165 bans
Keeper of the Light
185 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 568 bans
Phoenix
178 picks · 207 bans
Wraith King
178 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:26
496 Gaming 43%TNC Predator 57%
The model gave 57% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka458
AlchemistGabbi
MarsRed
Outworld DestroyerArmel
EarthshakerNARMAN
Beastmasterkpii
41% · 18 games
MiranaTims
36% · 15 games
TuskFebby
Game 2prediction correct17:40
496 Gaming 40%TNC Predator 60%
The model gave 60% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger458
Death ProphetArmel
BrewmasterRed
MorphlingGabbi
MiranaNARMAN
Marskpii
60% · 19 games
PangolierTims
62% · 13 games
OracleFebby
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 64%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2