?
arrow_backBack to match
EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Jenzwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
gotthejuice · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 3 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 3 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 2 games
50%

Team Jenz

Lina
Lina
No!ob · 5 games
80%
Luna
Luna
Parker · 4 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Jing · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
Yadomi · 2 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jing · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 354 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 236 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 346 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 634 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 230 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 397 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
293 picks · 280 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
285 picks · 307 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Jenz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:11
PuckChamp 36%Team Jenz 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuragi
49% · 359 games50% · 152 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Lina
Linadualrazee
63% · 26 games54% · 168 games
LargoNo!ob
Largo
Lycan
Lycankrol9ash
47% · 66 games40% · 173 games
Dark WillowJing
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
50% · 229 games52% · 443 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireGothic-
53% · 256 games
Game 2prediction correct53:55
PuckChamp 36%Team Jenz 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 1:09:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
50% · 342 games51% · 581 game
TinyParker
Tiny
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuragi
51% · 285 games39% · 345 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Lycan
Lycankrol9ash
60% · 90 games49% · 406 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroHyugadoto
48% · 414 games50% · 352 games
ClockwerkJing
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGothic-
54% · 553 games
Game 3prediction correct31:36
PuckChamp 35%Team Jenz 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuragi
53% · 220 games50% · 113 games
LunaParker
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
42% · 235 games37% · 320 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkrol9ash
59% · 29 games47% · 287 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernHyugadoto
61% · 46 games59% · 169 games
Keeper of the LightJing
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGothic-
51% · 359 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Jenz · 75%
Series resultTeam Jenz 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3