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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yor · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%

Latam Defenders

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 6 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 4 games
25%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Cucahook · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
281 picks · 563 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
252 picks · 320 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
219 picks · 403 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
209 picks · 164 bans
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
183 picks · 331 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
181 picks · 565 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
178 picks · 206 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
177 picks · 231 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 37%
Hero pool strength61% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Latam Defenders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:22
Infamous 45%Latam Defenders 55%
The model gave 55% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 26:22.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Infamous 45%Latam Defenders 55%
The model gave 55% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 28:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteLatam Defenders · 55%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2