Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TTequilawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Tequila
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
280 picks · 561 bans
Void Spirit
252 picks · 318 bans
Mars
219 picks · 401 bans
Earth Spirit
209 picks · 163 bans
Keeper of the Light
183 picks · 331 bans
Nyx Assassin
181 picks · 562 bans
Wraith King
177 picks · 230 bans
Phoenix
176 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Tequila
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:39
Hippomaniacs 40%Tequila 60%
The model gave 60% on Tequila — the game was taken by Tequila in 34:53.
Game 2prediction missed55:35
Hippomaniacs 40%Tequila 60%
The model gave 60% on Tequila — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 42:07.
Game 3prediction correct27:54
Hippomaniacs 40%Tequila 60%
The model gave 60% on Tequila — the game was taken by Tequila in 39:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTequila · 60%
Series resultTequila 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3