Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoTechiesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 3 games
Lion
Save- · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Save- · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 3 games
NoTechies
Witch Doctor
Solo · 5 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Earthshaker
Zayac · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
278 picks · 556 bans
Void Spirit
249 picks · 314 bans
Mars
219 picks · 398 bans
Earth Spirit
207 picks · 163 bans
Keeper of the Light
179 picks · 328 bans
Nyx Assassin
179 picks · 560 bans
Wraith King
176 picks · 227 bans
Phoenix
175 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 45%
Hero pool strength63% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
Virtus.pro 65%NoTechies 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonNightfall
MorphlingCrystallize
PuckgpK~
DoomErgon
Nature's ProphetDM
ViperMalik
ClockwerkSave-
EarthshakerZayac
Keeper of the Light1ls
LionSolo
Game 2prediction correct15:4
Virtus.pro 64%NoTechies 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 15:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkagpK~
Nature's ProphetErgon
Bounty HunterDM
EnigmaMalik
Queen of PainNightfall
BristlebackCrystallize
HuskarSave-
Keeper of the LightSolo
Oracle1ls
Earth SpiritZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 77%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2