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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 12 games
42%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 7 games
29%

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
273 picks · 552 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
246 picks · 310 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 394 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
206 picks · 163 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
177 picks · 555 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
176 picks · 325 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
173 picks · 202 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
171 picks · 226 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 72%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total65% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:45
Spider Pigzs 39%Creepwave 61%
The model gave 61% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuma
41% · 20 games47% · 22 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderNo!ob
47% · 37 games58% · 30 games
LycanCrystallis
Lycan
Viper
ViperMitch
58% · 14 games46% · 60 games
Death ProphetMalr1ne
Death Prophet
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassindnz
52% · 67 games53% · 66 games
RubickMiLAN
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLeBronDota
50% · 40 gameslittle data
BaneFishman
Bane
Game 2prediction missed29:17
Spider Pigzs 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
43% · 74 games60% · 11 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Wraith King
Wraith KingYuma
54% · 22 games56% · 28 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordMitch
48% · 10 games75% · 4 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Rubick
Rubickdnz
43% · 39 games63% · 67 games
EarthshakerMiLAN
Earthshaker
Enigma
EnigmaLeBronDota
36% · 9 games43% · 44 games
Crystal MaidenFishman
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct17:27
Spider Pigzs 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 52:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
50% · 14 games53% · 19 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Wraith King
Wraith KingYuma
36% · 41 game58% · 59 games
Death ProphetMalr1ne
Death Prophet
Viper
ViperMitch
53% · 15 gameslittle data
Treant ProtectorFishman
Treant Protector
Rubick
Rubickdnz
27% · 47 games66% · 49 games
PhoenixMiLAN
Phoenix
Enigma
EnigmaLeBronDota
53% · 21 game63% · 11 games
AxeATF
Axe
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 65%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3