?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
strongboysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 23 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
52%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 17 games
35%

strongboys

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Tobi · 1 game
100%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 1 game
100%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
100%
Pugna
Pugna
Tobi · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
538 picks · 856 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 375 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 590 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 788 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 579 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 557 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 485 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Aurora Gaming 75%strongboys 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
47% · 125 games58% · 50 games
ClinkzLowskill
Clinkz
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
51% · 166 games40% · 93 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
51% · 212 games48% · 153 games
SlardarStojkov
Slardar
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMira
49% · 70 games53% · 274 games
BatriderPonlo
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaKaori
45% · 175 games59% · 178 games
ChenTobi
Chen
Game 2prediction correct53:13
Aurora Gaming 76%strongboys 24%
The model gave 76% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightNightfall
49% · 18 games50% · 110 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
43% · 146 games47% · 321 game
Dragon KnightLowskill
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
52% · 174 games58% · 50 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
47% · 236 games58% · 176 games
ChenTobi
Chen
Tiny
TinyMira
50% · 290 games49% · 207 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 91%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2