Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 3 games
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Thiolicor · 2 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
KJ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
268 picks · 550 bans
Void Spirit
243 picks · 307 bans
Mars
218 picks · 394 bans
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 163 bans
Keeper of the Light
176 picks · 320 bans
Nyx Assassin
174 picks · 551 bans
Phoenix
173 picks · 202 bans
Wraith King
170 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 78%
Hero pool strength58% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:26
Quincy Crew 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:00.
Game 2prediction correct36:13
Quincy Crew 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 38:02.
Game 3prediction correct26:4
Quincy Crew 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 58%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3