Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
266 picks · 547 bans
Void Spirit
238 picks · 307 bans
Mars
218 picks · 392 bans
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 162 bans
Keeper of the Light
175 picks · 318 bans
Nyx Assassin
172 picks · 548 bans
Phoenix
172 picks · 202 bans
Wraith King
169 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:42
Infinity Esports 41%Hokori 59%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 28:37.
Game 2prediction correct26:37
Infinity Esports 41%Hokori 59%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 35:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 59%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2