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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Recast Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Bounty Hunter

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
ntakii · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
ntakii · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Flash · 5 games
80%

Recast Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
264 picks · 546 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
238 picks · 304 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 390 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 159 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
175 picks · 315 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
172 picks · 202 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
171 picks · 546 bans
59%
Wraith King
Wraith King
168 picks · 221 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:28
No Bounty Hunter 52%Recast Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckntakii
47% · 90 games47% · 38 games
MorphlingKoma`
Morphling
Ursa
UrsakAAN
49% · 32 games66% · 51 game
BeastmasterLastHero-
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierBliNcc
47% · 32 games51% · 66 games
Death ProphetTANNER
Death Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
52% · 60 games48% · 44 games
Crystal Maiden5up
Crystal Maiden
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorFlash
33% · 29 games54% · 44 games
ClockwerkAlexxo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct45:33
No Bounty Hunter 54%Recast Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladekAAN
49% · 22 games46% · 25 games
Phantom LancerKoma`
Phantom Lancer
Batrider
Batriderntakii
42% · 27 games49% · 43 games
Troll WarlordTANNER
Troll Warlord
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBliNcc
54% · 51 game48% · 17 games
ViperLastHero-
Viper
Tusk
TuskdEsire
56% · 15 games45% · 73 games
Rubick5up
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinFlash
54% · 77 games55% · 34 games
ClockwerkAlexxo
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed17:45
No Bounty Hunter 52%Recast Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingkAAN
53% · 45 games56% · 65 games
Monkey KingKoma`
Monkey King
Timbersaw
Timbersawntakii
35% · 18 games54% · 10 games
TinyTANNER
Tiny
Rubick
RubickdEsire
39% · 34 games52% · 9 games
SlardarLastHero-
Slardar
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBliNcc
41% · 42 games61% · 74 games
Earthshaker5up
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckFlash
49% · 73 games47% · 54 games
OracleAlexxo
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 55%
Series resultRecast Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3