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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cascade Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hippomaniacs

No games played over 6 months.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 5 games
40%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MieRo · 2 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 2 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Mastery · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
jAMES · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
264 picks · 541 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
238 picks · 300 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 388 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 158 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
175 picks · 311 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
171 picks · 541 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
171 picks · 202 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
168 picks · 220 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:37
Hippomaniacs 43%Cascade Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 24:29.
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Hippomaniacs 43%Cascade Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 27:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 57%
Series resultCascade Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2