Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fnaticwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 6 games
Mirana
Skem · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
PlayHard · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 4 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 3 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
264 picks · 536 bans
Void Spirit
237 picks · 298 bans
Mars
218 picks · 387 bans
Earth Spirit
203 picks · 158 bans
Keeper of the Light
174 picks · 309 bans
Phoenix
170 picks · 200 bans
Nyx Assassin
168 picks · 540 bans
Wraith King
167 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)87% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Neon Esports 73%Fnatic 27%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 32:53.
Game 2prediction correct25:20
Neon Esports 73%Fnatic 27%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 39:09.
Game 3prediction missed17:24
Neon Esports 73%Fnatic 27%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 52:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 73%
Series resultFnatic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3