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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XactJlepbIwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gambit Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

XactJlepbI

Mirana
Miranasignature
KingR · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
KingR · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MagicaL · 6 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lightless · 6 games
67%

Gambit Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
264 picks · 536 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
237 picks · 298 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 387 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
203 picks · 158 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
174 picks · 309 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
170 picks · 200 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
168 picks · 540 bans
59%
Wraith King
Wraith King
167 picks · 216 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:24
XactJlepbI 47%Gambit Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
little data52% · 13 games
Phantom Assassinxannii
Phantom Assassin
Lycan
Lycanlightless
28% · 10 games54% · 16 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFunn1k
51% · 23 games53% · 15 games
EnigmaBlizzy
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKingR
44% · 26 games64% · 40 games
Earthshakerxsvampire
Earthshaker
Death Prophet
Death Prophetnofear
36% · 34 games68% · 9 games
Shadow DemonAoharide
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct17:11
XactJlepbI 53%Gambit Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWatson
38% · 22 games40% · 20 games
Phantom Assassinxannii
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey Kinglightless
60% · 41 game50% · 68 games
Void SpiritLorenof
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
55% · 37 games46% · 20 games
TidehunterBlizzy
Tidehunter
Chen
Chennofear
50% · 4 games45% · 25 games
Miranaxsvampire
Mirana
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKingR
54% · 40 games51% · 11 games
EnigmaAoharide
Enigma
Game 3prediction correct27:11
XactJlepbI 51%Gambit Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerWatson
46% · 9 games44% · 17 games
Ursaxannii
Ursa
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlightless
56% · 24 gameslittle data
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Viper
ViperFunn1k
59% · 9 games42% · 14 games
EnigmaBlizzy
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKingR
53% · 42 games48% · 42 games
Earth Spiritxsvampire
Earth Spirit
Chen
Chennofear
little data47% · 11 games
Crystal MaidenAoharide
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 50%
Series resultXactJlepbI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3