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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ZeroTwoloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 8 games
38%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 6 games
67%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
343 · 3 games
67%

ZeroTwo

Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 3 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
261 picks · 536 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
236 picks · 297 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
217 picks · 386 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
203 picks · 158 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
174 picks · 308 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
170 picks · 198 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
167 picks · 540 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
166 picks · 215 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:27
Nigma Galaxy SEA 51%ZeroTwo 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAlaCrity
39% · 39 games46% · 16 games
MedusaCHYuan
Medusa
Puck
PuckForce
49% · 109 games59% · 13 games
LycanDreamocel
Lycan
Lion
Lion343
44% · 8 games61% · 78 games
Void Spiritxiaoyu154
Void Spirit
55% · 41 game
Nyx AssassininYourdreaM
Nyx Assassin
33% · 8 games
Ogre MagiPoloson
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct27:20
Nigma Galaxy SEA 53%ZeroTwo 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAlaCrity
55% · 39 games52% · 19 games
UrsaDreamocel
Ursa
Mars
MarsForce
43% · 77 games50% · 56 games
PuckCHYuan
Puck
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi343
45% · 16 games63% · 21 game
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Pangolier
50% · 8 games
Dark WillowinYourdreaM
Dark Willow
51% · 28 games
UndyingPoloson
Undying
Game 3prediction correct30:6
Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%ZeroTwo 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAlaCrity
50% · 41 game64% · 7 games
Wraith KingDreamocel
Wraith King
Razor
RazorForce
71% · 6 games41% · 17 games
Monkey KingCHYuan
Monkey King
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker343
43% · 3 gameslittle data
Night Stalkerxiaoyu154
Night Stalker
54% · 9 games
EarthshakerinYourdreaM
Earthshaker
46% · 17 games
PuckPoloson
Puck
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3