Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOYOloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
HOYO
Pangolieroften banned
Jhocam · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 5 games
Ogre Magi
boombell · 4 games
Clockwerk
boombell · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
260 picks · 536 bans
Void Spirit
236 picks · 297 bans
Mars
217 picks · 385 bans
Earth Spirit
203 picks · 158 bans
Keeper of the Light
174 picks · 308 bans
Phoenix
169 picks · 198 bans
Nyx Assassin
167 picks · 540 bans
Wraith King
165 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:19
Lilgun 48%HOYO 52%
The model gave 52% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 1:00:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 52%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1