FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VValinorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 18 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
Warlocksignature
Fly · 18 games
Batridersignature
Daxak · 15 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Valinor
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 3 games
Kunkka
Wuiter · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Ringmaster
Stoic · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Tusk
Stoic · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
535 picks · 854 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 371 bans
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 588 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 783 bans
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 578 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 553 bans
Mars
340 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
Virtus.pro 70%Valinor 30%
The model gave 70% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaTimado
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
Queen of PainSerenada
Dragon KnightCoblackk
MarsSabeRLight-
TinyG.T.I
LargoFly
RingmasterJeezy
Skywrath MageHellscream
JakiroStoic
Game 2prediction correct27:13
Virtus.pro 73%Valinor 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaTimado
GyrocopterCoblackk
UnderlordSabeRLight-
MarsWuiter
Ember SpiritSerenada
Void SpiritG.T.I
Shadow DemonHellscream
PhoenixJeezy
LargoFly
JakiroStoic
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 87%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2