Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 1:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 8 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
254 picks · 529 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 286 bans
Mars
212 picks · 382 bans
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
171 picks · 301 bans
Phoenix
168 picks · 194 bans
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 531 bans
Wraith King
160 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:22
Hippomaniacs 13%Hellbear Smashers 87%
The model gave 87% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 23:57.
Game 2prediction missed34:20
Hippomaniacs 13%Hellbear Smashers 87%
The model gave 87% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 53:51.
Game 3prediction correct18:37
Hippomaniacs 13%Hellbear Smashers 87%
The model gave 87% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 87%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3