IVY vs B8 Esports — prediction SSS# · Dota 2

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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

IVYloss 0:2

series probability

57%43%

probability at match start · final 0:2

B8 Esportswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Outworld Destroyeroften banned

TheBloodySky · 1 game

Underlordoften banned

Copy · 1 game

B8 Esports

Puckoften banned

Dendi · 7 games

43%

Rubick

illusion · 6 games

50%

Terrorbladeoften banned

RdO · 6 games

50%

Enchantress

Duster · 5 games

40%

Wraith Kingoften banned

RdO · 5 games

20%

Arc Wardenoften banned

RdO · 4 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

Dendi · 4 games

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Duster · 4 games

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

254 picks · 527 bans

55%

Void Spirit

234 picks · 285 bans

58%

Mars

210 picks · 382 bans

48%

Earth Spirit

199 picks · 154 bans

49%

Keeper of the Light

171 picks · 299 bans

57%

Phoenix

168 picks · 194 bans

58%

Nyx Assassin

165 picks · 530 bans

58%

Wraith King

160 picks · 211 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%

Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total57% IVY

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed21:43

IVY 50%B8 Esports 50%

The model gave 50% on IVY — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:56.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo