Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Bloodseekersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 6 games
Puckoften banned
w33 · 5 games
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 3 games
Earthshaker
GH · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
w33 · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
w33 · 2 games
Tundra Esports
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
Brewmaster
33 · 2 games
Grimstroke
Nine · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Fata · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
249 picks · 518 bans
Void Spirit
231 picks · 280 bans
Mars
207 picks · 378 bans
Earth Spirit
198 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
169 picks · 292 bans
Phoenix
165 picks · 190 bans
Nyx Assassin
164 picks · 520 bans
Wraith King
157 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:23
Nigma Galaxy 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritMiracle-
Phantom AssassinSkiter
Razorw33
Dark Seer33
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
PangolierNine
EnchantressKuroKy
PuckFata
Nyx AssassinGH
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1